This presentation was given at the Lean Software and Systems Conference 2012 (LSSC12).

Modeling and Monte-carlo simulation allows rapid (and repetitive) "what-if" risk analysis to be performed on proposed or ongoing Lean/Kanban projects. This analysis leads to reliably forecasting delivery dates, cost, staffing-requirements, and informed risk management. Learn how to quickly find options that minimize cost and delivery time, whilst maximizing revenue for a project and portfolio.
Modeling and simulation gives you a platform for experimentation before and during a project. Modeling your development process and project allows you to simulate possible delivery date/cost outcomes 1000's of times, and then compare these results to quickly find those model inputs that have the greatest impact on a final result (cost, date, or cycle-time); and then manage your project accordingly.
This talk both introduces the concepts and then discusses through detailed examples, how to answer important questions like:
1. What is the impact of outsourcing my QA process? Is it cost effective?
2. What is the cost impact because of high defect rates during development?
3. What is the delivery date impact of losing a key staff member? What staff skills do I need to hire next?

By the end of this session you will understand the capabilities of Monte-carlo simulation and modeling a Kanban project and be in a position to embrace these techniques in your own projects and teams.